This briefing note shows Myanmar’s conflict entering a critical phase, where resistance forces face growing pressure but continue to adapt, even as the war becomes a prolonged and uncertain contest of endurance.

Since Myanmar’s 2021 coup, armed resistance has expanded rapidly, with over 600 People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) emerging across the country. These groups vary widely in structure, capacity, and alliances—some closely integrated with Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs), others aligned with the National Unity Government (NUG), and some operating autonomously.

This report introduces a framework to categorise PDFs based on their level of integration and battlefield effectiveness, shedding light on their evolving role in Myanmar’s conflict. It examines shifting alliances, the impact of drone warfare, and the broader trajectory of resistance efforts, offering key insights into the country’s increasingly complex armed opposition.