Since Myanmar’s 2021 coup, armed resistance has expanded rapidly, with over 600 People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) emerging across the country. These groups vary widely in structure, capacity, and alliances—some closely integrated with Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs), others aligned with the National Unity Government (NUG), and some operating autonomously.

This report introduces a framework to categorise PDFs based on their level of integration and battlefield effectiveness, shedding light on their evolving role in Myanmar’s conflict. It examines shifting alliances, the impact of drone warfare, and the broader trajectory of resistance efforts, offering key insights into the country’s increasingly complex armed opposition.

This paper examines the evolution of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) from 2021 through 2024, tracing its transformation from a severely weakened entity to an adaptive, decentralised organisation capable of posing a persistent threat in Afghanistan.

Drawing on over 100 qualitative interviews with ex-ISKP members, supporters and sympathisers, it provides an insider perspective into ISKP’s strategies, challenges and resilience in the face of sustained Taliban counteroperations.

Despite significant losses – including the elimination of key leaders, mass surrenders and the disruption of critical operations – ISKP has maintained visibility and relevance. At the same time, Taliban counterterrorism strategies have evolved. The Taliban’s campaign has suppressed ISKP’s territorial and operational ambitions but has not eradicated its ideological appeal.

This paper examines how Sudanese civilians, facing widespread violence from the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF), have been compelled to negotiate survival strategies with warring factions. This report highlights the shift in Sudan’s power struggle, which has devolved from a national conflict into highly localized battles, particularly in Darfur. In response, local community leaders and power brokers have facilitated fragile truces to provide temporary protections, allow for trade, and secure safe passage for civilians.

This Working Paper looks at how smugglers navigate state and insurgent checkpoints in the Kurdish region of Iran. Through bribes that secure negotiated passages or using modified cars that enable evasion and circumventions, Kurdish smugglers co-produce contingent informal orders that vary significantly across these spatial nodes of power along illegal trade routes.

This Working Paper asks: what are the governance strategies and technologies that armed groups use to project authority? Comparing the use of checkpoints by two armed groups that operate in overlapping areas in Myanmar’s borderlands, Centre-fellow Tony Neil and Saw Day Chit find that armed groups use checkpoints differently to achieve different outcomes that are shaped by underlying ideological and cosmological foundations.

The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has proved to be remarkably resilient despite international and Taliban government efforts to destroy it. This paper offers an in-depth analysis of ISKP’s recruitment strategies, the varied experiences of its members, and the group’s operational dynamics across Afghanistan.

Following Myanmar’s February 2021 coup, checkpoints have exploded, crucial to both the military junta and resistance forces. Based on fieldwork in Sagaing Region and Chin State in 2022-2023, this paper by Gerard McCarthy and Kyle Nyana theorises the relational dynamics at and between their respective checkpoints.

This paper examines life under jihadist groups like JNIM in Mali, looking at the different survival strategies civilians employ.

This rapid analysis look at the impact of the the Israel-Hamas war on the behaviour of armed groups, and constraints on engaging with them