Reports and articles

Fostering peace through dialogue on culture
Research Florian Weigand Research Florian Weigand

Fostering peace through dialogue on culture

This briefing explores how cultural heritage can open dialogue with armed groups and de facto authorities in conflict zones, drawing on case studies from Afghanistan, Mali, Myanmar, Sudan, and Syria. It highlights cultural heritage as a potential tool for peacebuilding and recommends strategies to bridge cultural and political engagement.

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Checkpoints, Transnational Trade, and Conflict
Research Florian Weigand Research Florian Weigand

Checkpoints, Transnational Trade, and Conflict

This Working Paper proposes that checkpoints along transnational trade routes are central to conflict economies, facilitating the extraction of rents by armed groups without the need for extensive territorial control or bargaining with local populations. In addition, the paper explores the distributional impacts of checkpoint taxation.

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A Scalable Typology of People’s Defence Forces in Myanmar
Research Florian Weigand Research Florian Weigand

A Scalable Typology of People’s Defence Forces in Myanmar

Since Myanmar’s 2021 coup, armed resistance has expanded rapidly, with over 600 People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) emerging across the country. These groups vary widely in structure, capacity, and alliances—some closely integrated with Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs), others aligned with the National Unity Government (NUG), and some operating autonomously.

This report introduces a framework to categorise PDFs based on their level of integration and battlefield effectiveness, shedding light on their evolving role in Myanmar’s conflict. It examines shifting alliances, the impact of drone warfare, and the broader trajectory of resistance efforts, offering key insights into the country’s increasingly complex armed opposition.

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Shadow wars: the Taliban’s campaign against the Islamic State Khorasan Province
Research Florian Weigand Research Florian Weigand

Shadow wars: the Taliban’s campaign against the Islamic State Khorasan Province

This paper examines the evolution of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) from 2021 through 2024, tracing its transformation from a severely weakened entity to an adaptive, decentralised organisation capable of posing a persistent threat in Afghanistan.

Drawing on over 100 qualitative interviews with ex-ISKP members, supporters and sympathisers, it provides an insider perspective into ISKP’s strategies, challenges and resilience in the face of sustained Taliban counteroperations.

Despite significant losses – including the elimination of key leaders, mass surrenders and the disruption of critical operations – ISKP has maintained visibility and relevance. At the same time, Taliban counterterrorism strategies have evolved. The Taliban’s campaign has suppressed ISKP’s territorial and operational ambitions but has not eradicated its ideological appeal.

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