With 6.5 million Somalis facing acute food insecurity and Al-Shabaab controlling or contesting large parts of south-central Somalia, the gap between humanitarian need and humanitarian response has never been more consequential. This paper examines why the formal aid system has largely failed to reach populations in Al-Shabaab areas, and argues that the primary driver is not the group's behaviour but the system's own operational choices.

Drawing on interviews with humanitarian actors, donors and individuals close to Al-Shabaab, the paper traces how counter-terrorism frameworks, risk-averse funding models and alignment with the Somali government have entrenched an assumption that access is impossible — one the evidence does not support. It sets out a practical path forward: restoring perceived neutrality, resourcing access as a core function, and building the strategic humanitarian diplomacy needed to support the frontline engagement that is already, quietly, happening.

This working paper examines the dynamics of checkpoint authority in Somalia, focusing on how kinship, mobility and checkpoint practices intersect to shape political and social orders. The paper argues that checkpoints in Somalia—or isbaaro as they are locally called—are deeply embedded in the social fabric of clan society, where the practice of abanship—the brokerage of passage through clan territory—plays a crucial role. This brokerage not only facilitates trade but also reinforces clan identity and social differentiation

This rapid analysis look at the impact of the the Israel-Hamas war on the behaviour of armed groups, and constraints on engaging with them

Based on extensive research in Al-Shabab controlled areas of Somalia, this paper explores dynamics between Al-Shabab and those who live under their control.

Prevailing understandings of control – which focus on territorial dividing lines and acts of violence – are incomplete. Our paper argues that armed group control should instead be broken down according to how armed groups seek to influence populations.