Afghanistan: the collapse of the roadblock state
How the country fell to the Taliban give years ago, one checkpoint at a time
David Mansfield
This paper by David Mansfield examines how control over Afghanistan’s roadblocks and border crossings shaped the political economy of the Afghan Republic and contributed to its collapse in 2021. It shows how the country’s extensive trade routes became sources of revenue and patronage for government officials, provincial powerholders and the Taliban, with control over strategic points along major highways often more important than control over territory. Drawing on more than 1,200 interviews, high-resolution satellite imagery and geospatial data, the paper maps trade flows and estimates the revenues generated at key roadblocks. It challenges the emphasis on drugs and minerals in accounts of Taliban financing, showing that taxation of everyday goods transported along Afghanistan’s main roads generated substantial revenues. The paper argues that the proliferation of roadblocks under the Republic weakened central fiscal authority while sustaining a fragmented political settlement based on local patronage. As the Taliban gained control of key routes and border crossings following the 2020 Doha Agreement, they disrupted these revenue networks, accelerating the loss of political support for the Republic. After taking power, they reversed much of this system by dismantling internal roadblocks, regulating cross-border trade and centralising revenue collection.
This paper is the 17th in a working paper series on Roadblocks and Revenues, a collaboration between the Danish Institute for International Studies, the International Centre for Tax and Development and the Centre on Armed Groups.
