Iraq's PMF integration paradox: competing visions for a future within the Iraqi state
Dr Inna Rudolf outlines the contestations surrounding debates on the PMF’s integration with Iraq’s formal state apparatus, including factional differences, ideological roots, and transnational alliances.
Checkpoint Fragments and Hierarchies: Competing regimes of circulation in wartime Yemen, 2015-2026
Yemen’s war is also fought through roads. This paper shows how checkpoints along the Abyan–Aden–Lahej–al-Dhale’a–Dhamar corridor have become tools for extracting money, sorting people and goods, and enforcing rival claims to authority. It contrasts fragmented checkpoint rule in government/STC areas with the more centralised Houthi system, while showing that both make movement costly and politically controlled.
A Fracturing Order
This discussion paper examines how the international order that once contained armed conflict is fracturing across multiple, simultaneous dimensions. Drawing on cases spanning Sudan, Myanmar, Yemen, the Sahel, and Ukraine, the paper argues that these compounding failures have given armed groups and de facto authorities far greater freedom and resources than most analysts anticipated.
The paper identifies four cross-cutting dynamics reshaping this landscape: the breakdown of the classic patron-proxy model into fragmented, multi-patron brokerage networks; the growing economic and infrastructural power of armed groups, who now govern revenue streams, trade routes, and services independent of external backers; the retreat of international norm enforcement in favour of local, informal bargaining; and the weaponisation of misinformation to derail negotiations and access agreements. On this basis, the paper calls for a fundamental shift in how donors and practitioners approach engagement.
Children’s access to essential services
This research report explores the perceptions, motives, and practices of non-state armed groups and de facto authorities regarding children’s access to essential services across four case-studies: Mali, Myanmar, the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Yemen.
Shifting sands: Iran, the Axis of Resistance, and the war in Gaza
The war in Gaza has had deep implications for power dynamics in the Middle East. Iran’s regional power has been particularly impacted with an altering of the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’, its network of allies across the region—including in Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. This has had a considerable impact on Iran’s military capabilities in the current confrontation with Israel. To shed light on these developments, and what they mean for Iran and the balance of power in the region, we spoke with Centre on Armed Groups Fellow, Dr Fatima Moussaoui, a Middle East expert and lecturer at Sciences Po Paris, who explores these dynamics in her recent book, Iran’s Military Power Projection and the Empowerment of Ansar Allah.
Unlikely Allies: Engaging armed groups for the protection of cultural heritage
This findings report explores why and how armed groups engage with cultural heritage, offering new tools and insights for cultural protection in conflict zones.
Engaging de facto authorities & armed groups on cultural heritage protection in Syria
This Syria case study explores how engaging de facto authorities on cultural heritage protection can support peacebuilding and reconciliation. It examines HTS’s evolving approach to heritage and offers practical engagement strategies.
Strategies for engaging armed groups in cultural heritage protection
This briefing presents strategies for engaging armed groups on cultural heritage protection, focusing on risk management, community engagement, and practical tools for culturally sensitive programming in conflict zones.
Motivations of armed groups to protect cultural heritage
This briefing note explores why armed groups protect or destroy cultural heritage, highlighting ideological, political, and contextual factors that shape their behaviour. It offers insights to inform targeted engagement strategies in conflict zones.
Capacity building for engagement with non-state armed groups and de facto authorities
This briefing outlines barriers and solutions to building capacity for engaging armed groups and de facto authorities in protecting cultural heritage. It calls for better tools, partnerships, and recognition of heritage protection as a core humanitarian concern.